Betting Trends for Brewers vs Rays Game – 5/10/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 10, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, they find themselves looking to build off a tight 4-3 victory in their last matchup. The Rays currently sit at 17-21, struggling through a rough season, while the Brewers are managing an average campaign with a record of 19-20.

In this interleague matchup, Taj Bradley is projected to take the mound for the Rays. Though he ranks as the 105th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing an average profile, recent projections hint that he could perform better than his 4.43 ERA suggests, as luck hasn’t necessarily been on his side. In his last outing on May 4, Bradley delivered a solid performance, pitching 5 innings and allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 1 batter—a sign he might be rounding into form.

Opposing him will be Tobias Myers, considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to the advanced stats. Despite posting a respectable ERA of 3.65, his 5.70 xFIP indicates potential trouble ahead. In his last start on May 5, Myers managed to keep the damage to just 1 earned run over 5 innings, but his tendency to give up hits and the underlying metrics suggest he may struggle against the Rays’ offense.

The projections indicate that this game could see higher scoring, with a Game Total set at 9.5 runs. The Rays’ offense, while ranked 23rd in MLB overall, is better than their power statistics suggest, standing 22nd in home runs but ranking 5th in steals. The Brewers, on the other hand, are in similarly bad shape offensively, placing 24th in MLB rankings, but will rely on their top hitter, who has been productive recently.

With the Rays having an implied team total of 4.86 runs and a recent win boosting their confidence, they appear poised to take advantage of a struggling Brewers’ pitching staff. Expect a tightly contested affair as both teams vie to improve their season records.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Tobias Myers’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (46 vs. 40.7% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 83.2-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Travis Jankowski generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.3% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays ranks them as the #25 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 29 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 54% ROI)