Betting Trends for Brewers vs Rays Game – 5/10/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 10, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Rays are currently struggling, sitting at 17-21 this season, while the Brewers are slightly ahead with a 19-20 record. Both teams are in the lower half of their respective divisions.

In their last matchup, the Brewers faced the Rays and managed a solid performance, but the outcome of that game is what makes this encounter critical. Tampa Bay’s Taj Bradley is set to take the mound, and while he has been deemed an average starting pitcher, ranking as the 106th best in MLB, he has shown promise with a 3-2 record and a 4.43 ERA. His projections suggest he could allow around 3.0 earned runs and may strike out 4.6 batters on average today, but he’s also expected to give up 5.5 hits and 1.9 walks—figures that raise concerns for the Rays.

On the other hand, Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers has a better ERA at 3.65, but his underlying stats indicate he has been fortunate this season, and he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB based on advanced metrics. Myers projects to pitch slightly less than Bradley, with similar concerns regarding hits and walks allowed.

Offensively, the Rays rank 23rd in MLB and have struggled to convert opportunities into runs, which could be a significant factor against the Brewers’ underperforming offense, ranked 21st overall. However, both teams have shown they can steal bases effectively, with the Rays at 5th and the Brewers at 2nd in team stolen bases.

The game total is set high at 9.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive match. The Rays’ moneyline is -130, indicating that betting markets expect a close contest, despite their current form. With the Rays needing a strong showing to boost their season, this matchup presents a crucial opportunity for them to turn things around.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Tobias Myers’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (46 vs. 40.7% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 87.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 82.9-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Milwaukee Brewers hitters have struggled when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing worst in MLB.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Travis Jankowski generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays ranks them as the #24 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 29 games (+5.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 28% ROI)