Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)+130
On August 27, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field, continuing their series after Cleveland’s 3-0 victory yesterday, which marked a significant moment for a team trying to stay competitive this season. Both teams are struggling to find consistency; the Guardians sit at 65-66 while the Rays are at 64-68.
Cleveland will send Slade Cecconi to the mound, who has had an average season with a 4.41 ERA and a 5-6 record over 17 starts. While he pitched effectively in his last outing on August 22, going six innings with only two earned runs, he struggles with allowing hits and has an average projection of 5.5 innings with 2.6 earned runs today. In contrast, Tampa Bay counters with Drew Rasmussen, an elite pitcher ranked 14th best in MLB according to advanced stats, boasting a stellar 2.62 ERA and a solid 10-5 record. His recent form also shows effectiveness, as he held the competition to just two earned runs in his last start on August 20.
The Guardians’ offense ranks as the 30th best in MLB this season, profoundly impacting their ability to perform against a high-caliber pitcher like Rasmussen. Meanwhile, the Rays rank 15th in overall offense and are particularly strong in generating stolen bases. With the Guardians listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +130 and a low implied team total of 3.19 runs, they face an uphill battle against Rasmussen and a well-performing Rays bullpen, ranked 7th overall.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Among all starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2491 rpm is in the 91st percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Over the past 7 days, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays hitters have struggled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball.Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)Slade Cecconi has averaged 16.9 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 76th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Angel Martinez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 77.9-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Cleveland Guardians – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 128 games (+15.04 Units / 10% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 107 games (+11.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)Chandler Simpson has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 27% ROI)