New York Mets
Detroit Tigers
(-120/+100)+100
As the Detroit Tigers host the New York Mets on September 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Tigers, with an 80-60 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Mets, at 75-64, are having an above-average year. This game marks the third matchup of the series after the Tigers edged out the Mets in a tightly contested game yesterday.
The starting pitchers present a compelling contrast. Casey Mize, projected to take the mound for Detroit, has a 12-5 record and a respectable ERA of 3.95, although he ranks as the 122nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he is below average. Mize has shown good control with a low 6.2 BB%, but he faces a challenge against a patient Mets offense that ranks 4th in drawing walks. His projected performance today isn’t promising, as he’s expected to allow 2.8 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and strike out just 3.9 batters over 4.9 innings.
On the other hand, Clay Holmes, expected to start for the Mets, has been more effective this season, boasting an 11-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.60, ranking him 50th among starters. However, projections suggest he might be overperforming based on his 4.20 xFIP. He’s also set to pitch 5.0 innings, projecting to allow 2.5 earned runs, but struggles with strikeouts, only averaging 3.9 per game against a Tigers lineup that strikes out frequently.
Detroit’s offense ranks 11th in MLB, with an impressive home run tally, while the Mets’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 4th overall. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should expect a close contest. The current moneyline suggests the Tigers may have slightly less confidence from the betting markets, which could provide value for those considering a wager on them.
New York Mets Insights
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-120)Among every team today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Mark Vientos has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11% seasonal rate to 27% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-120)The 3rd-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Casey Mize – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate today.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88-mph figure last year has lowered to 86-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Detroit Tigers bats as a group place 6th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.