Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Dodgers vs Angels Wednesday, September 4, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 4, 2024, at Angel Stadium, the stakes are certainly high. The Dodgers come into this Interleague matchup riding high on their recent success, boasting a strong 84-55 record, while the Angels, struggling significantly this season with a 57-81 mark, are looking to salvage some pride. In a recent contest, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess, ultimately overwhelming the Angels.

On the mound, the Angels will send Griffin Canning to the hill. Canning has had a rough season with a 4-12 record and a 5.19 ERA, ranking as the 237th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in Major League Baseball. His projections indicate he will struggle again today, averaging only 4.9 innings pitched and allowing 3.4 earned runs. Meanwhile, Bobby Miller will take the mound for the Dodgers. Although his ERA of 7.25 is troubling, his 4.56 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could outperform his statistics as the season progresses.

Offensively, the match-up heavily favors the Dodgers. They rank 3rd in MLB in team offense, including a powerful 3rd place in home runs, while the Angels languish at 26th. However, the projections indicate that the Angels might score 5.10 runs—suggesting potential value for bettors looking at long shots.

Interestingly, while the betting markets currently list the Angels as underdogs with a +170 moneyline, the projections paint a slightly more optimistic picture for them. With Mickey Moniak leading the charge recently, recording 8 hits and 4 home runs over the last week, the Angels could make this contest more competitive than expected.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Bobby Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Bobby Miller has gone to his slider 6.7% less often this season (10.7%) than he did last season (17.4%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.2-mph to 97.4-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-205)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Despite posting a .216 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brandon Drury has suffered from bad luck given the .084 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .300.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games at home (+6.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  Zach Neto has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 27 games (+22.30 Units / 83% ROI)