Betting Tips and Odds for Rays vs Blue Jays – Thursday July 25th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 25, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing American League East matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are having a below-average season with a 46-55 record, while the Rays are playing .500 baseball at 51-51. This game marks the third in their series, with Toronto taking the last game by a 6-3 score.

Toronto will send Chris Bassitt to the mound, who sports a respectable 3.71 ERA over 20 starts this year. Despite his solid surface stats, advanced metrics suggest Bassitt has been somewhat fortunate, with a 4.22 xERA indicating potential regression. Bassitt’s recent form is also a concern, as he got blown up for 5 earned runs over 7 innings in his last outing on July 19. Nonetheless, Bassitt ranks as the 64th-best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

On the other side, Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who boasts an excellent 2.63 ERA across 13 starts. Like Bassitt, Bradley’s underlying numbers suggest some luck, with a 3.28 xFIP hinting at possible regression. Bradley, ranked 44th among MLB starters, pitched a gem in his last start on July 20, going 7 innings without allowing an earned run.

Offensively, both teams have struggled this season. The Blue Jays’ lineup ranks 22nd overall and is particularly weak in power categories, sitting 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the standout, hitting .296 with 18 home runs and an .854 OPS. He’s been hot recently, batting .444 with 4 home runs over the last week.

The Rays’ offense fares slightly better, ranking 23rd overall and 4th in stolen bases but still struggling in batting average (23rd) and home runs (26th). Randy Arozarena has been their best hitter, posting a .381 average and 3 home runs over the last week.

Considering the starting pitchers, both teams’ offensive woes, and the strength of the Rays’ bullpen (ranked 7th), this game is expected to be low-scoring, reflected by a Game Total of 7.5 runs. Betting markets have set an even moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating a close contest. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Blue Jays a 56% win probability, suggesting there might be value in backing Toronto in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Among all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.7 mph grades out in the 92nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.205) may lead us to conclude that Jonny Deluca has experienced some negative variance this year with his .168 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-210/+160)
  Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 86th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+13.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+11.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+510/-900)
  George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+19.60 Units / 89% ROI)