Betting Tips and Odds for Rangers vs Mets – Friday September 12th, 2025

Texas Rangers

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 12, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, with the Mets sitting at 76-71 and the Rangers just a notch ahead at 77-70. The stakes are high as both teams aim to solidify their playoff positions with the season winding down.

In their last outing, the Rangers struggled offensively, falling short against their opponents, which has been a recurring theme for a lineup that ranks 26th in MLB. Their struggles at the plate present a significant challenge against Mets’ pitcher Jonah Tong, who, despite a modest 1-1 record and an ERA of 4.09, is projected to allow only 2.1 earned runs today. Notably, Tong ranks 43rd among MLB starters, hinting at potential upside.

On the other side of the mound, the Rangers will counter with ace Jacob deGrom. Although he has had an elite season, ranking 13th among MLB pitchers with a stellar 2.78 ERA, he faces a Mets offense that has been one of the most powerful in the league, ranking 4th overall with 199 home runs. This matchup pits deGrom’s excellent control against a Mets lineup that excels in drawing walks, which could neutralize one of deGrom’s strengths.

Betting markets indicate this matchup is expected to be close, with both teams having a moneyline set at -110. The projections suggest a low-scoring game with a total of just 7.5 runs, reflecting the confidence in both starting pitchers to limit runs scored. Based on their offensive capabilities and Tong’s average performance metrics, the Mets may be poised to capitalize on this home game, making them a team to watch as they push for victory.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  The New York Mets have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Jacob deGrom in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has been unlucky given the .044 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .346.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-115)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In the last 7 days, Jeff McNeil’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-115)
  The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 away games (+12.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Francisco Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+10.10 Units / 202% ROI)