Betting Tips and Odds for Giants vs Mets – Friday August 1st, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will host the San Francisco Giants at Citi Field on August 1, 2025, in the first game of their series. The Mets, sitting comfortably with a record of 62-47, appear to be on solid ground this season, while the Giants are struggling at 54-55. It’s worth noting that both teams are coming off losses, with the Mets falling 5-0 in their last outing and the Giants losing 2-1.

Mets’ left-handed pitcher David Peterson is projected to take the mound, carrying a respectable 2.83 ERA this season, which ranks him as the 89th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. Peterson has shown some inconsistency recently, having struggled with hits and walks in his last start, but he still managed to limit the damage by allowing only one earned run. On the other side, Robbie Ray, also a lefty, has had an average season, evident from his 2.93 ERA and 4.02 xFIP. While he has performed well in his last game, the Mets’ lineup might exploit his high walk rate, especially since they rank 6th in MLB for drawing walks.

While the Giants’ offense has been underwhelming, coming in at 24th overall, their lack of power could play into Peterson’s hands, given his penchant for inducing ground balls. The Mets’ offense ranks 12th in MLB, suggesting they have the potential to capitalize on Ray’s control issues. With a favorable matchup for Peterson and a slightly higher-ranked bullpen for the Mets, they enter this matchup as betting favorites with an implied team total of 4.33 runs. The projections also suggest that the Giants may struggle to reach their implied total of 3.67 runs, setting the stage for an intriguing clash at Citi Field.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Robbie Ray in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants bats collectively have been one of the worst in Major League Baseball this year ( 5th-worst) as far as their 88.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  David Peterson’s 90.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.4-mph decline from last season’s 91.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Pete Alonso has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 92 games (+14.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.20 Units / 32% ROI)