Betting Odds and Picks for Yankees vs White Sox – 8/12/24

New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox

The New York Yankees travel to Guaranteed Rate Field to face the Chicago White Sox on August 12, 2024, in what marks the beginning of a three-game series. The Yankees, currently sitting at 70-49, are firmly in the playoff hunt, while the White Sox languish at 28-91 in a dismal season. With the Yankees’ offense ranked 1st in MLB, they pose a significant threat against a struggling White Sox pitching staff.

In their last outings, the Yankees faced the Seattle Mariners, winning convincingly, while the White Sox last played against the Kansas City Royals, where they struggled to find their rhythm. The matchup features a stark contrast in pitching, as the White Sox plan to start Ky Bush, who has a poor ERA of 6.75 and ranks as the 300th best starting pitcher in MLB. Bush’s high walk rate (25.0 BB%) and tendency to surrender fly balls (45 FB%) could spell trouble against a powerful Yankees offense that has hit 149 home runs this season, ranking 2nd overall.

Luis Gil, projected to start for the Yankees, boasts a solid ERA of 3.06 and ranks 46th among MLB starters. His ability to limit damage, alongside the Yankees’ offensive prowess, creates a favorable scenario for New York. The projections indicate that Bush will likely struggle, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs over just 4.3 innings pitched, while Gil is expected to give up only 2.2 earned runs across 5.5 innings.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Yankees enjoying a hefty moneyline of -300, this game presents a significant opportunity for bettors to capitalize on. The White Sox, facing an uphill battle, are heavy underdogs at +250, reflecting their struggles both at the plate and on the mound this season.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-320)
  Luis Gil has been lucky this year, posting a 3.06 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.91 — a 0.85 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive skill to be a .427, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .047 difference between that mark and his actual .474 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Corey Julks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Corey Julks has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 49 games (+4.75 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 74 games (+21.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-185)
  Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 25% ROI)