San Francisco Giants
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-160
As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on August 3, 2025, they find themselves in a tight race for playoff positioning. The Mets currently hold a record of 63-48, showcasing a solid season, while the Giants sit at 55-56, struggling to stay relevant in the postseason conversation. In their last matchup, the Mets secured a victory, pushing their momentum into this crucial game.
Starting for the Mets will be Frankie Montas, projected to pitch 5.2 innings with an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed. Despite being ranked as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montas has shown flashes of potential, especially with a 4.16 xFIP that suggests he has been unlucky this season. The Giants, on the other hand, will counter with Carson Whisenhunt, who has had a rough start to the year, putting up an alarming 7.20 ERA in just one game. His projections indicate a struggle, as he is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs.
Offensively, the Mets rank 12th in the league, benefiting from a solid lineup, although they rank 23rd in batting average. Meanwhile, the Giants are in a precarious position, ranking 24th overall and struggling significantly, particularly with their 27th place finish in home runs. With the Mets’ bullpen ranked 9th in MLB and the Giants’ at 19th, New York has a notable edge in relief pitching.
Despite the Mets being favored with a moneyline of -155, their implied team total of 4.66 runs suggests they should capitalize on the Giants’ weaknesses. Given the current projections and matchups, the Mets look poised to extend their winning streak and solidify their standing in the National League.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Over the last 7 days, Rafael Devers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.7% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Carson Whisenhunt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
New York Mets Insights
- Frankie Montas – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Throwing 78.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Frankie Montas places him the 14th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Pete Alonso has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.5-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Mets – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-160)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 67 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+135)Tyrone Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)