Betting Odds and Picks for Athletics vs Rangers – 8/31/24

Oakland Athletics

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on August 31, 2024, they find themselves in a matchup that highlights the struggles both teams have faced this season. The Rangers, sitting at 63-72, are having a below-average year, while the Athletics, with a record of 59-76, are also underperforming. In their last game, the Rangers fell short against the Athletics, who are looking to build on that momentum.

Cody Bradford is set to take the mound for the Rangers, bringing a solid 3.31 ERA to the game. Although he ranks as the 95th best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.10, which suggests potential regression. Bradford has pitched in eight games this year, with a decent 4-2 record. He projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out 5.9 batters today, but his tendency for fly balls (44% FB rate) could be a concern against a powerful Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs.

On the other hand, Joey Estes will take the ball for the Athletics. With an ERA of 4.37, Estes has struggled this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. His projected performance includes allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out only 3.5 batters, which could play into the Rangers’ hands if their offense can capitalize.

Despite their overall struggles, the Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 7th best in MLB, giving them a potential edge late in the game. With the Rangers favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.66 runs, this matchup could tilt in their favor if Bradford can manage the powerful Athletics lineup effectively.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Over his last 3 starts, Joey Estes has suffered a big decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 2372 rpm over the entire season to 2271 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Leody Taveras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 93.9-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+14.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+145)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Daz Cameron – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Daz Cameron has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 away games (+12.60 Units / 74% ROI)