Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Royals vs Brewers 4/1/25

Kansas City Royals

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Kansas City Royals meet for the second game of their series on April 1, 2025, the stakes are notable for both squads. The Brewers, currently struggling with a dismal 0-4 record this season, are looking to shake off the cobwebs after an embarrassing 11-1 loss to the Royals yesterday. Meanwhile, Kansas City comes in with a 2-2 record, buoyed by their recent performance.

On the mound, the Brewers are set to start Chad Patrick, who has had a rough start to the season with an ERA of 18.00 and projects to allow 1.7 earned runs in just 3.7 innings today. Patrick’s struggles may be exacerbated by the fact that he’s facing a Royals offense that ranks 14th overall, featuring a strong individual performance from their best hitter who boasts a .385 batting average and 1.390 OPS over the last week.

Contrastingly, Michael Lorenzen will take the ball for Kansas City. While not excelling, Lorenzen’s projection suggests he could offer a somewhat steadier outing, averaging 4.8 innings and allowing around 2.5 earned runs. However, he also struggles with walks, projected to allow 2.1 today, which could open up opportunities for Milwaukee’s offense, currently ranked 10th in the league.

Despite their struggles, the Brewers have a solid offensive foundation, ranking 2nd in stolen bases and 9th in batting average, indicating potential to capitalize on any mistakes by Lorenzen. With the betting markets favoring Milwaukee at -125, there’s a sense that this could be a close contest. Given the Brewers’ strong offensive rankings, they may just turn things around and secure their first win of the season in front of the home crowd at American Family Field.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Michael Lorenzen’s fastball spin rate of 2387 rpm grades out in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Hitting the ball to all fields is a crucial talent for batting average that Michael Massey has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his grading out in the 0th percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.
  Explain: Hitters who are unable to spray the ball around the field tend to have weak bat control and are predictable for the opposing defense, making hits tougher to come by.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Chad Patrick to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 60 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eric Haase, Oliver Dunn, Rhys Hoskins).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.95 Units / 38% ROI)