Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Reds vs Nationals 7/20/24)

Cincinnati Reds

@

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds clash again today at Nationals Park in the second game of their series. Yesterday, the Nationals came out on top with an 8-5 victory, defying the odds with a closing Moneyline price of +115. The Nationals’ win was fueled by an impressive offensive showing, despite their below-average season record of 45-53. Meanwhile, the Reds, who are also having a below-average year with a 47-51 record, will look to bounce back.

Today’s pitching matchup features two left-handers: MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals and Nick Lodolo for the Reds. Gore, who ranks as the #66 starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a 6-8 record and a 4.01 ERA this season. However, his 3.07 FIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Lodolo, the #48 ranked pitcher, boasts an 8-3 record and a stellar 3.33 ERA, though his 3.93 xFIP hints at potential regression.

The Nationals’ offense, ranked 26th overall, has struggled this season but showed signs of life in yesterday’s game. They rank 19th in batting average and 29th in home runs but excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd. CJ Abrams, their best hitter, has been a bright spot with a .265 batting average and 15 stolen bases.

On the other side, the Reds’ offense ranks 18th overall, with significant variance in their performance metrics. They are 26th in batting average but 14th in home runs and lead the league in stolen bases. Elly De La Cruz, their standout hitter, has contributed 17 home runs and 47 stolen bases, maintaining a solid .824 OPS.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Nationals holding a slight edge at -105 odds, implying a 49% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Nationals a 50% win probability, hinting at potential value for bettors. With both offenses capable of explosive plays and the starters’ performances crucial, this matchup promises to be an intriguing one.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Santiago Espinal has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 16.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 7.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average pitcher, MacKenzie Gore has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Juan Yepez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 97 games (+8.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 16% ROI)