Betting Odds and Bets for Tigers vs Athletics – 9/6/24

Detroit Tigers

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Detroit Tigers on September 6, 2024, in what promises to be a compelling matchup, despite both teams sitting on the fringes of contention. The Athletics, struggling this season with a record of 61-80, have been largely disappointing, while the Tigers find themselves with a slightly better 71-70 record, indicating an average season.

In their last game, the Athletics fell short against a competitive opponent, and their offense currently ranks 20th overall in Major League Baseball. This poor ranking reflects their struggles to consistently produce runs. On the other side, the Tigers also face offensive challenges, ranking 25th, but they have shown moments of resilience.

The pitching duel features Mitch Spence for the Athletics and Tarik Skubal for the Tigers. Spence, with a Win/Loss record of 7-9 and an ERA of 4.50, has had an average year, projecting to allow 2.5 earned runs today. His xERA of 3.90 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, which might bode well for him in this outing. However, he faces a daunting task against the elite Skubal, who boasts a remarkable 2.51 ERA and has excelled with a Win/Loss record of 16-4. Skubal’s ability to strike out batters at a 30.3% rate is particularly concerning for an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in strikeouts this season.

Betting lines indicate the Athletics are sizable underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied team total of just 3.09 runs. Despite this, the projections might hint at a potential upset, especially if Spence can harness the better-endowed luck that’s eluded him thus far. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, runs will be at a premium, making each opportunity crucial for both teams.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Tarik Skubal’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (53.5 vs. 48.1% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Spencer Torkelson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .218 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .175 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Parker Meadows pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Mitch Spence’s 90.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 6th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Daz Cameron – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Daz Cameron’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+135)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 57 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 49 games (+10.95 Units / 22% ROI)