Betting Odds and Bets for Dodgers vs Pirates – 9/2/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On September 2, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at PNC Park, kicking off a critical series for both teams. The Pirates, at 61-77, find themselves struggling this season, while the Dodgers boast a solid 78-59 record, positioning them among the top contenders in the National League. In their last game, the Dodgers faced an impressive outing from Clayton Kershaw, who secured a complete game shutout, further emphasizing his dominance on the mound.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Carmen Mlodzinski, ranked 140th among MLB starters, whose current season has been marked by a lack of consistency. Mlodzinski’s ERA sits at 3.86, but his xERA of 4.43 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune. With a projected 3.9 innings pitched and an average of 2.2 earned runs allowed, he faces a tough challenge against a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd overall, highlighting their ability to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, is a different beast. With a 3.06 ERA and a strong record of 9-2 this year, Kershaw projects to allow 2.3 earned runs over 4.9 innings pitched. While his strikeout numbers have dipped slightly, he remains an elite left-handed pitcher capable of stifling the Pirates’ struggling lineup, which ranks a dismal 29th in MLB offensively.

Betting lines favor the Dodgers, giving them an implied team total of 4.81 runs compared to the Pirates’ low projection of 3.69 runs. With the Dodgers’ recent form and a significant edge in offense, this matchup leans heavily in favor of Los Angeles, making them an attractive prospect for bettors looking to capitalize on the disparity.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Compared to the average hurler, Clayton Kershaw has been given a below-average leash this year, tallying an -10.2 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  With a 3.64 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that focuses on the things a pitcher can most influence), Carmen Mlodzinski places him the 78th percentile.
  Explain: ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher’s deserved runs allowed.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Total Bases
  Joey Bart has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 4.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 14.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 101 games (+21.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+11.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.85 Units / 34% ROI)