Betting Odds and Bets for Dodgers vs Blue Jays - 4/7/26

-150O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)+125

Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #5 HR venue among all parks — today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
This season, Freddie Freeman has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.9 mph compared to last year’s 94.1 mph mark.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kevin Gausman has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 10.2% more often this year (56.4%) than he did last year (46.2%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Typically, hitters like Jesus Sanchez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 85 of their last 149 games (+22.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 100 games (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 35% ROI)

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