Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+150
As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on April 30, 2025, this matchup carries significant weight. After their previous game, where Matthew Boyd led the Cubs to a decisive win, the Pirates will be looking to turn their struggling season around. Pittsburgh sits at 11-19, while Chicago boasts an impressive 18-12 record and ranks as the 2nd best offense in MLB, making this a classic case of a team in turmoil facing a powerhouse.
Carmen Mlodzinski, projected to start for the Pirates, has had a rough season so far, with a 1-3 record and an alarming ERA of 6.95. His 3.85 xFIP suggests he might be due for some positive regression, but today he’s up against a Cubs lineup that can capitalize on mistakes, having already hit 42 home runs this season, which ranks 4th in MLB. The Cubs also have a balanced attack, ranking 3rd in batting average, which could exploit Mlodzinski’s vulnerabilities.
Matthew Boyd, on the other hand, has been a solid performer for Chicago, holding a 2-2 record with a stellar ERA of 2.54. Although his 19.5% strikeout rate suggests he may struggle against a Pirates offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts, he could find success with his high-flyball approach against a team that has managed only 23 home runs this year (4th least in MLB).
In terms of projections, today’s Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a moderately high-scoring affair. While the Pirates are currently underdogs with a +145 moneyline, their offensive struggles suggest that a significant upset could be challenging.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-175)The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Chicago Cubs batters jointly grade out 9th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Carmen Mlodzinski has tallied 13.2 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Over the past 7 days, Joey Bart’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 26 games (+13.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)