Betting Guide and Odds for Reds vs Pirates – Thursday August 7, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The matchup on August 7, 2025, features the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. Currently, the Pirates sit at 49-66, struggling through a disappointing season marked by an offense that ranks as the 30th best in MLB. On the other hand, the Reds have fared better with a 60-55 record, reflecting an above-average season.

In their last outing, the Pirates continued to falter, and while they didn’t record a standout performance, they remain reliant on their ace, Paul Skenes. Skenes, projected to start, ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. With a notable ERA of 2.02, he is set to face the Reds’ Brady Singer, who is marked as a below-average pitcher with a 4.36 ERA. The projections suggest that Skenes will pitch roughly 5.8 innings while allowing only 1.8 earned runs, which could be pivotal against a Reds offense that is middle-of-the-pack but still better than what the Pirates have fielded this year.

Notably, Skenes has displayed an impressive strikeout rate, averaging 7.0 strikeouts per game, while Singer has struggled with a higher average of hits and walks allowed. Given Singer’s tendency to allow fly balls, the Pirates’ lack of power could play to his advantage.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs set for this matchup, the Pirates are positioned as favorites with a -170 moneyline. However, their offensive struggles continue to cast doubt, especially against a competent Reds lineup. Given Skenes’ elite status and the Reds’ inconsistent hitting, this game could hinge on whether the Pirates can capitalize on their pitching advantage.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Brady Singer’s 2424-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 81st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Paul Skenes has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Bart is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Total Bases
  Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 88th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.