Betting Guide and Odds for Nationals vs Braves – Tuesday September 23, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 23, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Braves sit at 74-83, while the Nationals are even further behind at 64-93. This matchup is particularly crucial as it marks the second game of their series, following the Braves’ recent win.

On the mound, Braves’ right-handed pitcher Hurston Waldrep is projected to start. Although Waldrep holds a solid Win/Loss record of 5-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.04, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as his xFIP sits at 3.66. Waldrep projects to pitch 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average. Despite this, his strikeout rate is average at 5.0, while his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks per outing raises concerns.

Brad Lord, the Nationals’ right-handed pitcher, has a Win/Loss record of 5-8 with an ERA of 4.18, which is above average. However, projections indicate that he, too, will struggle, averaging only 4.8 innings with 2.8 earned runs allowed. His strikeout rate is a concerning 3.8, and he also projects to give up 5.1 hits and 2.0 walks.

Offensively, the Braves rank as the 13th best in MLB, while the Nationals are languishing at 25th. The Braves’ lineup features a hitter who has been on fire lately, recording a .417 batting average over the past week with 10 hits and 2 home runs. In contrast, the Nationals’ best hitter, while solid, has not matched this level of production.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -190, indicating a strong expectation for them to perform well. Given the disparity in both pitching and offensive capabilities, the Braves have a significant edge heading into this matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Brad Lord’s high utilization rate of his fastball (64.6% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Daylen Lile’s true offensive ability to be a .313, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .037 difference between that figure and his actual .350 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under Total Bases
  Luis Garcia Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-190)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Atlanta Braves offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+10.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+165)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 69 away games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ignacio Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1400/-20000)
  Ignacio Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.38 Units / 285% ROI)