Betting Guide and Odds for Mets vs Cardinals – Wednesday April 1, 2026

New York Mets

@

St. Louis Cardinals

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average starter, Freddy Peralta has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 4.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• New York Mets bats collectively grade out 3rd- in the game for power since the start of last season when using their 10.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Liberatore will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  When it comes to his batting average, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .293 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .261.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 119 games (+8.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 44% ROI)