Betting Guide and Odds for Mets vs Brewers – Friday September 27, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the New York Mets travel to Milwaukee to face off against the Brewers on September 27, 2024, both teams are winding down their strong seasons, with the Brewers holding a 91-68 record and the Mets at 87-70. The Brewers have been enjoying a good run, bolstered by their 10th-best-ranked offense, while the Mets are not far behind, ranked 8th. Additionally, both teams find themselves in the hunt for playoff positions, adding further spice to this National League matchup at American Family Field.

Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Brewers. Despite an unlucky 7-11 record this season, his 4.25 xFIP suggests he’s been better than his 4.85 ERA indicates. Montas is projected to allow 2.1 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.2 batters, aligning with his average projection. His challenge will be navigating a Mets lineup that ranks 6th in home runs and poses a powerful threat.

For the Mets, Sean Manaea takes the start. With a 12-5 record and a strong 3.29 ERA, Manaea’s been a consistent force, though his peripheral stats hint at some favorable fortune with a 3.97 xFIP. He’s projected to allow a bit more at 2.5 earned runs, while also striking out 5.7 batters. The Brewers lineup, excelling in batting average and stealing bases, will undoubtedly test Manaea’s control and consistency.

The Brewers hold a slight edge in this clash, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives Milwaukee a 56% chance to win, a notable increase from their implied probability of 47%. With the Brewers also projected to outscore the Mets 4.32 to 4.00 runs, bettors might find value backing them in what promises to be a tightly contested affair with playoff implications.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Sean Manaea has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Jose Iglesias is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 7 bats who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Frankie Montas should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Brice Turang’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 87-mph seasonal average has decreased to 73.6-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 85 of their last 151 games (+6.95 Units / 4% ROI)
• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 101 games (+14.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)