Bets and Betting Tips for Yankees vs Cubs – September 06, 2024

New York Yankees

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the New York Yankees at Wrigley Field on September 6, 2024, both teams are looking to assert themselves in a crucial interleague matchup. The Yankees, currently at 80-60, are enjoying a strong season and sit in a favorable position for playoff contention. In contrast, the Cubs, with a record of 72-68, are having an average year and find themselves in a tight race for a Wild Card spot.

In their most recent outings, the Cubs made a statement by shutting out the Pittsburgh Pirates 12-0 on September 4, showcasing their offensive potential. Meanwhile, the Yankees faced a setback, losing to the Texas Rangers 10-6, which may have affected their momentum heading into this game.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Jordan Wicks, who has had an up-and-down season with a 3.82 ERA and a 2-2 record across 7 starts. Wicks, ranked 113th among starting pitchers, is seen as an average performer. His projections indicate he will pitch around 4.8 innings and allow about 2.1 earned runs, but he may struggle with walks, averaging 2.0 per game.

Luis Gil, the Yankees’ starter, boasts a much stronger 3.39 ERA and a 12-6 record in 24 starts, ranking him 56th among MLB pitchers. Gil’s projections show he will pitch about 5.1 innings while allowing around 2.0 earned runs, but he has been known to issue walks at a high rate, which could play into the Cubs’ advantage as they rank 5th in the league for drawing walks.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favored with a 54% win probability, but the Cubs’ current moneyline of -105 suggests a closely contested matchup. The projections estimate the Cubs will score approximately 3.57 runs, while the Yankees are expected to put up 4.16 runs.

With both teams looking to improve their standing, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle, particularly with the Cubs’ offense aiming to build on their recent success against a solid Yankees squad.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Luis Gil’s 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 93rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive ability to be a .425, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .047 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .472 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees hitters collectively grade out in the majors for power this year when using their 10.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jordan Wicks – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jordan Wicks has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -8.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the last week, Ian Happ’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 85 games (+23.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 35 games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)