Bets and Betting Tips for Twins vs Tigers – June 28, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Detroit Tigers

On June 28, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Minnesota Twins at Comerica Park for the second game of their series, following yesterday’s encounter where the Twins came out on top with a 4-1 victory. The Tigers currently hold a strong record of 51-32, positioning themselves as a top contender in the American League Central, while the Twins sit at 40-42, navigating an average season.

Detroit’s Casey Mize is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid 7-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.88 this season. However, his 3.90 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating potential challenges ahead. Mize’s last outing saw him allow just 1 earned run over 5 innings, showcasing his capability when on form. In contrast, Minnesota’s Bailey Ober, with a 4-5 record and a 4.90 ERA, is coming off a rough start where he allowed 7 earned runs in 7 innings. This disparity in recent performance could give the Tigers an edge.

Offensively, Detroit ranks 5th in MLB, bolstered by their ability to score and generate runs, while Minnesota’s offense is ranked 16th, struggling to keep pace. The Tigers’ depth at the plate is highlighted by their best hitter, who has a 0.292 batting average and is producing well, including a notable 0.400 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Twins’ best hitter, while effective, has not shown the same spark in recent games.

With the Tigers favored at a moneyline of -155 and an implied total of 4.94 runs, the projections indicate they should capitalize on their home-field advantage against a struggling Twins lineup. As the Tigers look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss, this matchup could provide a crucial opportunity to solidify their standing in the division.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Trevor Larnach has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Casey Mize has utilized his change-up 8% more often this season (26.1%) than he did last season (18.1%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 83 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 59 games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.50 Units / 208% ROI)