Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Yankees – Sunday, September 29th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare for the finale of their three-game series on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in different seasons. The Yankees, boasting a strong 93-68 record, are closing out a standout campaign, while the Pirates sit at 76-85, representing a below-average season for the club.

Despite the Yankees’ recent setback with a 9-4 loss to the Pirates, New York remains a favorite in this interleague clash. With Clarke Schmidt taking the mound for the Yankees, their chances look promising. Schmidt, ranked 49th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, enters the game with an excellent 2.55 ERA. Though his xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate, Schmidt’s prowess at inducing strikeouts plays well against the Pirates, who rank as the 4th highest in strikeouts this season.

The Pirates will counter with Bailey Falter, whose season has been less impressive. With a 4.26 ERA and troubling peripherals indicating some luck in his results, Falter faces a Yankees lineup that’s both powerful and patient. New York’s offense ranks 3rd overall, leading MLB in home runs. Given Falter’s tendency to allow flyballs, the Yankees’ sluggers could capitalize.

Aaron Judge continues to be a powerhouse for New York, leading the team with 58 home runs and a .322 batting average. His recent hot streak, including four home runs over the last week, highlights the form that makes the Yankees’ lineup so potent.

With the Yankees holding a projected win probability advantage of 5% over the market’s implied probability, savvy bettors may find value in backing the Bronx Bombers, especially considering their high projected run total. The Pirates, meanwhile, will aim to finish strong, but the odds are stacked against them in this matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Bailey Falter’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (62.7 vs. 52.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Over the past 14 days, Joey Bart’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit 30.2% of their balls in the air 100+ mph this year, ranking them as the #8 squad in the league by this metric.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  In his last outing, Clarke Schmidt was on point and posted 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Giancarlo Stanton has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 129 games (+16.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 67 away games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jose Trevino – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+140/-180)
  Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+14.40 Units / 30% ROI)