Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Dodgers – Friday, April 25th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 25, 2025, they do so in a strong position, holding a 16-9 record and currently ranking 1st in the National League West. In their most recent outing, the Dodgers saw their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, shine with a no-hitter, further solidifying their status as contenders this season. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 10-16 and rank 4th in the NL Central, making this matchup particularly lopsided.

Yamamoto is projected to take the mound, and the numbers back up his elite status as he ranks 3rd among starters in the league. This season, he boasts a remarkable 0.93 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 35.2%. Facing a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts, Yamamoto could exploit their weaknesses effectively.

On the other side, the Pirates will start Paul Skenes, the top-ranked pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, even though he has had a mixed season with a 2.87 ERA and a 2-2 record. Skenes has also been a bit unlucky, with both projections indicating he may improve as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Dodgers are ranked 7th overall and lead the league with 41 home runs, while the Pirates sit at a dismal 27th in MLB offense. This stark contrast suggests that the Dodgers have the ability to capitalize on their offensive prowess against Skenes, especially as he tends to induce ground balls.

With a low game total of 7.0 runs and the Dodgers being substantial favorites at -200, betting trends heavily favor Los Angeles. With the projections suggesting an average team total of around 4.06 runs for the Dodgers against the Pirates’ low estimate of just 2.94 runs, expect the Dodgers to harness their home-field advantage and continue their strong play.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 25.1% more often this season (57.5%) than he did last season (32.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Among all SPs, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)