Best Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Cubs – Sunday, June 15th, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 15, 2025, in a matchup that could have significant implications for both teams. The Cubs currently boast a strong record of 43-28, placing them firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Pirates struggle at 29-43. In their previous game on June 14, the Cubs edged out the Pirates with a tight 2-1 victory, extending their winning ways as they look to maintain momentum.

On the mound, the Cubs will send Colin Rea to the hill. Rea has had a mixed season, holding a solid 3.92 ERA, but his peripheral metrics suggest he has been a bit lucky, as his 4.96 xERA points toward potential regression. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow approximately 2.2 earned runs today, which bodes well for Chicago. Additionally, Rea’s low strikeout rate might actually work to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts.

Opposing him, Mitch Keller is having a rough year with a 4.15 ERA and a troubling 1-9 record. Although Keller’s FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, he still faces a daunting challenge against a Cubs’ offense that ranks 4th overall this season. The Cubs have been exceptional at the plate, particularly with their 5th best ranking in home runs and a potent lineup that has shown its power recently.

With the Cubs favored at -145, their implied total of 3.77 runs indicates confidence in their ability to score against Keller. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.23 underscores the uphill battle they face. Given the Cubs’ pitching advantage and strong lineup, they look well-positioned to take another victory in this series.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Mitch Keller’s slider utilization has jumped by 10.2% from last season to this one (25.1% to 35.3%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Colin Rea.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Alexander Canario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  In today’s game, Alexander Canario is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (77th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all starting pitchers, Colin Rea’s fastball spin rate of 2202 rpm grades out in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.20 Units / 67% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)