Athletics vs White Sox Picks and Betting Tips – April 15th, 2025

Athletics

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Chicago White Sox

On April 15, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Oakland Athletics at Guaranteed Rate Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams. The White Sox enter the game with a dismal 4-11 record this season and recently lost their last game against the Athletics by a score of 3-1. Meanwhile, the Athletics, at 6-10, are coming off a particularly rough outing, suffering an 8-0 defeat that speaks to their own issues at the plate.

Sean Burke is projected to start for the White Sox, and his current performance raises some red flags. With a Win/Loss record of 1-2 and an unfavorable ERA of 6.08, Burke has not been able to find his footing this year. He projects to pitch an average of just 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs, while his low strikeout rate (13.6 K%) could prove detrimental against an Athletics offense that is among the least strikeout-prone in MLB. However, his xFIP of 5.40 projects a potential turnaround, as it indicates he has been somewhat unlucky.

In contrast, Jeffrey Springs takes the mound for Oakland. With a 2-1 record and a more respectable ERA of 4.20, Springs is expected to perform more effectively. He projects to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs. His ability to strike out batters at an average rate (5.2 K’s) could give the Athletics a crucial edge, especially considering the White Sox offense ranks a troubling 30th in MLB.

Given the current odds, the Athletics are favored, and while the projections suggest a higher potential for success, the White Sox might just find an opportunity to capitalize on Burke’s potential improvement and the home-field advantage in this matchup.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Jeffrey Springs is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  This year, Gio Urshela’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 5% last year to just 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Shea Langeliers pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Sean Burke will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Joshua Palacios is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Chicago White Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Matt Thaiss, Luis Robert Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 82 of their last 157 games (+2.65 Units / 1% ROI)
• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Jacob Wilson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 42% ROI)