Athletics vs Tigers Betting Guide – 6/25/25

Athletics

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers host the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park on June 25, 2025, both clubs are coming off a game that saw the Tigers victorious in a commanding 11-4 win the day prior. The Tigers currently sit atop the American League standings with a strong 50-30 record, while the Athletics struggle at 32-49, marking a stark contrast in performance this season.

The matchup features two starting pitchers with different trajectories. Detroit’s Jack Flaherty, projected to start, has had an uneven season, reflected in his 5-8 record and an ERA of 4.83, suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky. However, he ranks as MLB’s 74th best pitcher, indicating he can be effective. Flaherty’s last start was a rough outing, giving up 8 earned runs over just 2 innings, but projections suggest he could bounce back today, with a solid average performance expected of 5.8 innings and 2.4 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, Oakland’s Jacob Lopez, who has started just 7 games this season, holds a 1-4 record with a more respectable ERA of 4.25. Despite his average ERA, he has shown potential, notably pitching well in his last game, allowing only 1 earned run in 6 innings. His projections indicate that he may face challenges, as he’s likely to allow 4.2 hits and 1.9 walks today, which could spell trouble against a potent Tigers offense.

Speaking of the Tigers’ offense, it ranks 5th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs and hit home runs consistently. This offensive prowess, combined with a strong bullpen rated 6th in MLB, strengthens Detroit’s position as a betting favorite with a moneyline of -165. Meanwhile, the Athletics, despite a respectable offensive ranking of 10th, find themselves as underdogs at +145, implying a win probability of just 40%.

In this compelling matchup, with the Tigers looking to capitalize on their great season while the Athletics strive to find footing, fans can expect an engaging game with significant implications for both clubs.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Tyler Soderstrom is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Luis Urias pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jack Flaherty’s slider rate has fallen by 6.1% from last season to this one (29% to 22.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Spencer Torkelson’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 90-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.4-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 80 games (+17.83 Units / 20% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.67 Units / 13% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 47% ROI)