Athletics vs Rockies Value Bets and Betting Line – 4/06/2025

Athletics

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on April 6, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their rocky starts to the season. The Rockies currently sit at 1-7, while the Athletics have managed a slightly better 4-5 record. In their last encounter, the Athletics triumphed over the Rockies with a 7-4 victory on April 5, adding to Colorado’s struggles.

Chase Dollander, projected to start for the Rockies, has been a mixed bag so far, ranking as the 124th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, which places him below average. He projects to pitch approximately 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs, and his ability to strike out batters is below average as well. However, his matchup against Joey Estes, one of the worst pitchers in MLB, could work in the Rockies’ favor. Estes has an alarming ERA of 13.50, which reflects his struggles, including allowing 6 earned runs in his last start.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 51st in MLB, which is concerning, especially against an Athletics team that, despite ranking 27th in overall offense, has found power with 7 home runs, placing them 7th in that category. The projections suggest that the Rockies may have an edge, with a high implied team total of 5.44 runs, while the Athletics are set at 5.06 runs.

With both teams desperate for a win and the Rockies’ bullpen ranked 8th best in MLB, this matchup could be closer than anticipated. Bettors might find value in backing the Rockies, who are favored at -125, given the struggles of Estes and the potential for Dollander to capitalize on a weak Athletics lineup.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (44.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jhonny Pereda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Extreme groundball bats like Jhonny Pereda tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chase Dollander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Athletics have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Tyler Dollander ought to benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ryan McMahon has big-time HR ability (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (30.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Joey Estes doesn’t generate many whiffs (13th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 8th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games at home (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+7.60 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 3 games (+5.50 Units / 183% ROI)