Houston Astros
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+145
On May 4, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Houston Astros at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game in their series. The White Sox, struggling with a 9-24 record this season, are coming off a disappointing loss to the Astros the previous day, falling 8-3. Meanwhile, Houston stands at a respectable 17-15, showcasing an above-average season thus far.
The matchup features Bryse Wilson as the projected starter for the White Sox, while Lance McCullers Jr. takes the mound for the Astros. Wilson, ranked as the 298th best starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled this season, holding a 0-1 record with a 5.00 ERA across two starts. Moreover, his advanced metrics paint a concerning picture, suggesting he might be due for regression. He’s projected to pitch approximately 4.2 innings today, with an average of 2.2 earned runs, 4.4 hits, and 1.0 walks allowed.
In contrast, McCullers Jr. is seen as an average pitcher, and he brings a more stable presence to the game. His projections indicate he could pitch 4.9 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, a more favorable statistic that could tilt the game in Houston’s favor.
Offensively, the White Sox rank 28th in overall production and 29th in batting average, making it difficult for them to generate consistent scoring. Houston’s offense, despite ranking 22nd in home runs, has shown a better capacity to drive in runs, positioning them as favorites in this contest.
With the Astros listed at -170, a solid win probability suggests they may have the upper hand, especially given the disparity in pitching matchups and recent performances. Expect the White Sox to face a tough challenge in turning their season around as they take on a more seasoned Astros team.
Houston Astros Insights
- Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.2-mph average last year has decreased to 81.3-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Bryse Wilson – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryse Wilson to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Josh Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Typically, batters like Joshua Palacios who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Lance McCullers Jr..Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Chicago White Sox have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forwardExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 8 games (+8.55 Units / 93% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 38% ROI)