Astros vs Rangers Value Bets and Betting Line – 5/17/2025

Houston Astros

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet for the third game of their series on May 17, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive American League West, with the Rangers holding a slight edge at 24-22 compared to the Astros’ 23-21. In their previous matchup, the Rangers fell to the Astros by a score of 6-3, which marked a continued positive trend for Houston’s pitching staff.

For today’s game at Globe Life Field, the Rangers are projected to start Tyler Mahle, who has posted an impressive ERA of 1.47 this season. Despite being ranked 75th among starting pitchers, Mahle’s record of 4-1 indicates he’s been effective. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests some luck may be involved, and he faces a unique challenge against the Astros’ lineup. Mahle has also shown some vulnerability, projecting to allow an average of 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks today, which could be problematic against a lineup seeking to capitalize on any mistakes.

On the other side, Ronel Blanco will take the mound for the Astros. His ERA sits at 4.04, and while he’s had his share of struggles, the projections indicate he might see improvement due to past misfortune. Notably, Blanco pitched excellently in his last start, going eight innings with no earned runs and 11 strikeouts, showcasing his potential to dominate.

The Rangers’ offense has been lackluster overall, ranking 27th in MLB, while the Astros are slightly better at 16th. Given the Rangers’ offensive struggles coupled with Mahle’s potential red flags, today’s matchup could be a close contest, reflected in the betting lines with Texas at -120 and Houston at +100. With both teams possessing above-average pitching, this game promises to be a tight affair, making the under on the 8.0 run total a tempting option for bettors.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Considering that flyball pitchers hold a notable edge over flyball batters, Ronel Blanco and his 38.2% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today’s matchup matching up with 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In the last 7 days, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Tyler Mahle meets a tough challenge squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jake Burger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 99.9-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Kyle Higashioka, the Rangers’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 35% ROI)