Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
(-120/+100)-135
The Texas Rangers will host the Houston Astros on May 17, 2025, in the third game of their series. The Rangers currently sit at 24-22, while the Astros are slightly behind at 23-21. Both teams are having above-average seasons, but the Rangers hold a slight edge in the standings.
In their last matchup, the Rangers managed to secure a narrow victory, showcasing their ability to compete in tight games. Today, they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Globe Life Field, where their offense has struggled, ranking 25th in MLB. Despite this, they do rank 14th in home runs, indicating some potential for power.
On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Tyler Mahle, who has been impressive this season with a 4-1 record and a stellar 1.47 ERA. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and he projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and 5.2 hits today. Mahle’s ability to limit walks (1.4 projected) will be crucial against a Houston offense that ranks 15th overall.
The Astros will counter with Ronel Blanco, who has a 4.04 ERA and has been considered a below-average pitcher in the projections. Blanco’s high walk rate (9.8 BB%) could be problematic against a Rangers lineup that is the 2nd least patient in terms of drawing walks. With an average projected performance of 5.3 innings and 3.0 earned runs allowed, Blanco will need to be sharp to keep the Astros competitive.
This matchup is critical for both teams as they seek to gain momentum in the division. The Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.27 runs, while the Astros are the underdogs at +120, with a lower implied total of 3.73 runs. With both pitchers having contrasting trends, this game could swing either way, but the Rangers’ solid pitching and home advantage might give them the edge they need.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Ronel Blanco has a mean projection of 2.3 walks in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)In the last 7 days, Christian Walker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Due to his reverse platoon split, Tyler Mahle meets a tough challenge squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected batting order of the same handedness in this game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jake Burger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 99.9-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)Tyler Mahle has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)