Astros vs Pirates Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 6/05/2025

Houston Astros

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On June 5, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Houston Astros at PNC Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Pirates are struggling this season with a record of 23-39, while the Astros are performing well with a 33-28 record. In their last matchup, the Pirates fell short, continuing a difficult stretch for the team.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Mitch Keller, who has had a challenging year with a 1-7 record despite a solid ERA of 3.73. Keller’s 3.21 FIP suggests he has been unlucky, and he projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs. However, his below-average strikeout rate of 4.7 and high projected hits allowed (6.6) could spell trouble against a capable Astros lineup.

On the other hand, Houston will send out Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher with a 5-4 record and a fantastic ERA of 3.12. Valdez projects to pitch 6.1 innings and allow just 2.4 earned runs, making him a significant challenge for the Pirates’ struggling offense, which ranks 27th in MLB. While the Pirates excel in stolen bases, their lack of power—ranking 29th in home runs—could hinder their ability to capitalize on any opportunities against Valdez.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the projected struggle of the Pirates’ offense against a top-tier pitcher. Despite the odds favoring the Astros, Keller’s potential for improved luck and the Pirates’ speed on the bases could create an intriguing matchup. With the Pirates currently listed as underdogs at +140, there may be value in their chances if Keller can harness his potential and outperform expectations.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  In his last GS, Framber Valdez was in good form and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jacob Melton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Pittsburgh’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Jacob Melton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros batters jointly rank near the cellar of Major League Baseball this year ( 2nd-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Mitch Keller has averaged 17.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Nick Gonzales is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.60 Units / 35% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+660/-1300)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+20.90 Units / 348% ROI)