Houston Astros
Athletics
(-110/-110)-110
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 23, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses in their most recent outings. The Athletics were shut out 11-0, while the Astros fell 7-3. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and with both clubs sitting in different positions in the standings, the stakes are evident.
The Athletics currently sit at 73-83, showing a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Astros, at 84-72, are having a more successful campaign. Despite their struggles, the Athletics boast the 7th best offense in MLB, particularly known for their power with 214 home runs, ranking 6th overall. They will look to exploit the high-flyball tendencies of Astros’ pitcher Cristian Javier, who has a fly ball percentage of 46 this season.
On the mound, Oakland’s Jeffrey Springs is projected to start, albeit with a mixed bag of results. Springs has a Win/Loss record of 10-11 this year and an ERA of 4.17, indicating he has been serviceable. However, his 4.71 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests he could be due for a downturn. Conversely, Cristian Javier has had a tough season as well, with a 2-3 record and a slightly above-average ERA of 4.45. The projections forecast that Javier could improve, especially after a solid last start where he went six innings with two earned runs.
With both teams having high implied run totals of 5.25, expect a lively game at Sutter Health Park. The Athletics’ ability to leverage their powerful offense against Javier could provide them with an edge, especially considering their recent offensive output. As the Athletics aim to turn their season around, this matchup could prove to be critical for their momentum heading down the stretch.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Cristian Javier was in good form in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jake Meyers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Jake Meyers has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (47% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Jeffrey Springs is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue in the league in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Typically, bats like Brent Rooker who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cristian Javier.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Positioned highest in the game this year, Athletics hitters collectively have recorded a 16.9° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (an advanced metric to measure power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Run Line +1.0 (-135)The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 90 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 152 games (+15.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-590)Lawrence Butler has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+10.00 Units / 111% ROI)