Angels vs Red Sox Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, June 04, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

@

Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on June 4, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling with below-average records. The Red Sox sit at 29-34 while the Angels are slightly behind at 28-32, making this matchup critical for both as they look to turn their seasons around.

In their last game on June 3, the Red Sox lost a close one to the Angels, falling 4-3, which adds some pressure as they look to even the series. On the mound for Boston will be Lucas Giolito, who has had a rough season, ranking as the 156th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Giolito has a Win/Loss record of 1-1 with a 4.78 ERA, suggesting he has been unlucky but still projects to allow an average of 3.0 earned runs today.

Conversely, Jose Soriano takes the hill for the Angels. With a solid performance this season, Soriano ranks 51st among starters and boasts a 3.41 ERA. Despite his luck running out as indicated by his higher SIERA and xERA, he is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs today, which is below average.

The Red Sox offense, ranked 7th in MLB, is a stark contrast to the Angels’ 25th ranking. Boston’s lineup has been productive, highlighted by their ability to hit home runs—ranking 8th in that category. Meanwhile, the Angels’ offense struggles, particularly in batting average, sitting at 27th. Given these disparities, Boston’s strong hitting could provide the edge needed to secure a victory.

With a high Game Total of 10.5 runs, this matchup promises to be an engaging one for bettors, especially with the Red Sox favored at -140. As the teams take the field, all eyes will be on whether Boston can capitalize on their offensive strengths against a faltering Angels lineup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Jose Soriano’s 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.5-mph fall off from last season’s 97.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Taylor Ward is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Because groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Lucas Giolito (36.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 away games (+13.20 Units / 88% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-175)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+6.70 Units / 89% ROI)