Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-240
The Seattle Mariners, currently 80-68, are enjoying an above-average season as they continue to vie for a Wild Card spot in the American League. In contrast, the Los Angeles Angels, with a record of 69-79, are having a below-average year. This matchup on September 13, 2025, marks the third game of the series between the two teams, with the Mariners having won the last encounter 2-1.
Bryan Woo, ranked as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, is set to take the mound for the Mariners. With a Win/Loss record of 13-7 and an impressive ERA of 3.02, Woo has been a key asset this season. His recent performance on September 8 saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 9 batters. Woo projects to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing an average of 1.6 earned runs, which could bode well for the Mariners.
On the other side, the Angels will counter with Mitch Farris, who has struggled throughout the season. Farris has started only 2 games, boasting a Win/Loss record of 1-0 and a standout ERA of 2.45. However, his xFIP of 4.92 suggests he has been fortunate, and he projects to allow 3.0 earned runs over approximately 4.7 innings today. With the Mariners’ potent offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season, Farris may find himself in a difficult spot.
The Mariners are currently favored with a moneyline of -245, reflecting their strong performance and the projections indicating they should score around 4.55 runs. Conversely, the Angels are seen as underdogs with a low implied team total of 2.95 runs. Overall, expectations are high for Woo and the Mariners as they look to capitalize on their advantages in this pivotal matchup.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+200)In his previous outing, Mitchell Farris was on point and conceded 1 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Bryce Teodosio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Bryce Teodosio has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Christian Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Christian Moore has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Bryan Woo has averaged 18.8 outs per start this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)When it comes to his home runs, Eugenio Suarez has been lucky this year. His 45.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 31.1.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Bryan Woo – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-240)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+14.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+15.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.80 Units / 44% ROI)