Angels vs Astros Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/13/2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles Angels on April 13, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions this season. The Astros, currently struggling with a 6-8 record, are looking to rebound after losing to the Angels 4-1 yesterday. Meanwhile, the Angels, boasting a solid 9-5 record, are riding high after their recent victory.

On the mound, Houston is projected to start Hayden Wesneski, who has had a mixed bag of performances so far this year. Despite an average ERA of 3.75, Wesneski’s 2.21 xERA suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. However, his high flyball rate (47% this year) could be a cause for concern against a powerful Angels offense that ranks 3rd in MLB with 27 home runs. Wesneski’s projections suggest he could allow 2.6 earned runs in 5.2 innings, which is average, but he also projects to allow a concerning 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks.

Kyle Hendricks, starting for the Angels, has been effective with a stellar 1.64 ERA. However, his 4.04 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some good fortune, suggesting he could come back to earth soon. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing around 3.1 earned runs, which is on the higher side for his standards.

Offensively, the Astros rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs, while the Angels rank 7th, showcasing their power with a strong lineup. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting odds favor the Astros at -155, reflecting their implied win probability of 59%. However, considering the current form and the trends in play, the Angels may find themselves in a favorable position to capitalize on their offensive strengths against Wesneski.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks’s fastball velocity of 87.4 mph is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Jorge Soler has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 12.6% rate last year to 19.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be best to expect negative regression for the Los Angeles Angels offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hayden Wesneski will “start” for Houston Astros today but will be treated as more of an opener and may not stay on the mound for more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.5-mph figure last year has fallen off to 82-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros bats collectively place 27th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 82 games at home (+0.80 Units / 1% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 39% ROI)
• Kyren Paris – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Kyren Paris has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+33.00 Units / 367% ROI)