Live Stream Details for Rockies vs Mets – Saturday, July 13, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and Colorado Rockies are set to face off in the second game of their series at Citi Field on July 13, 2024. The Mets, sitting at 48-45, are having an above-average season and are currently in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling with a 33-62 record, having been eliminated from division contention.

In their last game on July 12, the Mets edged out the Rockies with a 7-6 victory. The Mets were heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline of -275 and an implied win probability of 71%. Conversely, the Rockies entered the game as significant underdogs with a +235 Moneyline and a 29% implied win probability.

Christian Scott, the Mets’ projected starter, has been solid this season with a 4.15 ERA across seven starts. Despite a 0-2 Win/Loss record, Scott’s advanced metrics suggest he’s been slightly better than his ERA indicates. His last outing on July 8 saw him go six innings, allowing just two earned runs with three strikeouts. Scott’s ability to limit earned runs could be pivotal against a Rockies offense that ranks 19th in MLB.

Ryan Feltner will take the mound for the Rockies. With an ERA of 5.29 and a 1-8 record over 18 starts, Feltner has struggled this season. However, his 4.00 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Feltner’s last start on July 8 was a bright spot, as he pitched seven strong innings, allowing only one earned run and striking out six.

Offensively, the Mets boast the 7th best offense in baseball, highlighted by their power ranking 4th in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been a key contributor, playing in 93 games and recording 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Jose Iglesias has also been hot, hitting .368 with two homers over the last week.

The Rockies’ offense, ranked 19th, will rely heavily on Brenton Doyle, who has been their best hitter this season with a .277 average and a .813 OPS. Doyle has been particularly impressive over the last week, hitting .318 with four home runs and seven RBIs.

The Mets bullpen ranks 21st, slightly better than the Rockies’ 24th-ranked bullpen. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are favored with a 64% win probability. Their implied team total of 4.68 runs suggests a strong offensive showing, while the Rockies’ implied total of 3.32 runs indicates they may struggle to keep pace.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+170)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jake Cave has averaged 4.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 3rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to average, Christian Scott has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -7.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In the last week, J.D. Martinez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Luis Torrens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+16.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 57 games (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)