Follow Live Updates on Dodgers vs Padres – Tuesday, October 8th, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers gear up for a crucial National League Division Series Game 3 on October 8, 2024, at Petco Park. The Dodgers, with the 1st-ranked offense in MLB, have consistently showcased their power, ranking 3rd in home runs and 4th in batting average. By contrast, the Padres hold the 6th-best offense, leading in team batting average and sitting 8th in home runs. The series has been fiercely contested, with each game playing a significant role in the postseason.

The Padres are pinning their hopes on Michael King, projected to start today. King, ranked as the 19th-best pitcher, sports a commendable 13-9 record and a stellar 2.95 ERA this year. However, with his 3.50 xFIP suggesting luck has been on his side, expectations may need tempering. Despite this, King projects to limit damage with 2.2 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters. His consistent performance bolsters the Padres’ chances, although his projected 4.3 hits and 1.6 walks could be areas of concern.

Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Dodgers, seeking to overcome a challenging season marked by a 1-6 record and a 5.38 ERA. His 4.49 xFIP hints at better luck on the horizon, potentially quieting the powerhouse Padres lineup. Buehler’s projections underscore struggles ahead, projecting 2.4 earned runs and a low strikeout count against a team that leads in avoiding strikeouts.

In terms of bullpens, the Dodgers narrowly edge out the Padres, with their bullpen ranked 1st compared to San Diego’s 2nd. Both teams boast elite relief units, ensuring runs will be hard to come by late in the game. With the Padres’ implied win probability at 58% compared to a projected 55% from THE BAT X, bettors might find the Dodgers’ underdog status appealing. This matchup promises a tight contest, with both lineups and starters eager to make their mark in a pivotal playoff game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers infield defense profiles as the best out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to average, Michael King has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.3 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+18.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 92 games (+20.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)