Review the Latest Player Stats for Royals vs Yankees – Monday, October 7th, 2024

Kansas City Royals

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals gear up for Game 2 of their American League Division Series matchup on October 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in different positions. The Yankees, playing at home in Yankee Stadium, are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -150, reflecting an implied win probability of 58%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly higher edge at 59%. This suggests there might be some value in backing the Yankees.

On the mound, New York will rely on Carlos Rodon, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 16-9 record and a 3.96 ERA this season. While Rodon is known for his strikeouts, the Royals present a unique challenge as they rank 2nd in the league for least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of Rodon’s strengths. Despite this, Rodon is expected to navigate through Kansas City’s lineup, projecting to allow 2.1 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is considered good.

For Kansas City, Cole Ragans will take the hill, also a lefty, with an 11-9 record and an impressive 3.14 ERA. However, Ragans faces the daunting task of containing a Yankees offense that is 3rd best in MLB and leads the league in home runs. Ragans is projected to allow 2.1 earned runs over 4.6 innings, a statistic that might be tested against the Yankees’ power.

The Yankees’ offensive prowess is further highlighted by their 1st rank in home runs, while Kansas City’s offensive ranking sits at a more average 14th. Furthermore, the Yankees’ bullpen, ranked 12th, could play a crucial role in maintaining any lead, though the Royals’ bullpen, ranked 7th, is a notch better.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup where the Yankees’ power and Rodon’s poise could prove decisive against a Royals team looking to upset the odds.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+135)
  Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Michael Massey is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Gleyber Torres has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 129 games (+19.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 away games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Hunter Renfroe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+9.00 Units / 112% ROI)