Game Forecast: Mets vs Brewers Head-to-Head Analysis Saturday September 28th, 2024

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets gear up for the second game of their series on September 28, 2024, both teams are eyeing strong finishes to their seasons. The Brewers, sitting at 92-68, have already clinched a playoff spot and are looking to solidify their standing with another win after defeating the Mets 8-4 in the series opener. Meanwhile, the Mets, with an 87-71 record, are battling for a Wild Card berth, making this matchup crucial for their postseason aspirations.

The Brewers will send Jared Koenig to the mound, a pitcher who has been primarily effective out of the bullpen this season. Despite being ranked as the #142 best starting pitcher, Koenig boasts an impressive 2.51 ERA. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests he might have been benefiting from some good fortune. On the other side, the Mets will counter with Jose Quintana, who has been steady with a 3.74 ERA over 30 starts, but his 4.54 xFIP indicates potential vulnerability.

Offensively, Milwaukee’s lineup, ranked 10th in MLB, will look to capitalize on their recent success. Willy Adames has been a standout performer, driving in 111 RBIs and hitting 32 home runs. In contrast, the Mets rely on Francisco Lindor, who has contributed 31 home runs and 86 RBIs, anchoring their 8th-ranked offense.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 55% win probability, suggesting they have the upper hand. Milwaukee’s ability to limit the Mets’ power with Koenig’s groundball tendencies could be a game-changer. Expect a competitive clash as both teams fight for their postseason positioning.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jose Quintana’s 90.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 6th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Jose Iglesias has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, Jared Koenig may not go more than a couple frames considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Brice Turang has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .250 figure is deflated compared to his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 159 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+18.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 69% ROI)