Live Updates for Cardinals vs Rockies – 9/25/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Colorado Rockies

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies are set to clash at Coors Field on September 25, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Cardinals, with a record of 80-77, are having an average season and are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, while the Rockies, with a dismal 60-97 record, are simply playing for pride at this point in the season. In the first game of the series, the Cardinals showcased their resilience with a narrow victory over the Rockies and will look to extend their momentum in this series.

On the mound, the Rockies will send Austin Gomber to start. Gomber, a left-hander, has struggled throughout the season, boasting a 5-11 record with a 4.67 ERA, ranking as the 241st best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite the numbers suggesting he’s been somewhat fortunate, Gomber’s projected performance includes 5.0 innings pitched and 3.3 earned runs allowed. His projections suggest a tough outing against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 13th in team batting average but struggles with power, ranked 23rd in home runs.

The Cardinals counter with Erick Fedde, currently ranked 86th among MLB starters. Fedde has enjoyed a solid season with an 8-9 record and a stellar 3.38 ERA. However, his underlying 4.23 xFIP hints at potential regression. His projections for this game are average, with 5.2 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed, facing a Rockies offense that, while average with a 16th ranking in home runs, has been limited in their effectiveness overall.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 52% win probability, while the betting markets slightly favor them with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% chance. With the game total set high at 10.5 runs, expect fireworks in this high-altitude showdown.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  Out of all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under Hits
  Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the St. Louis Cardinals projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Austin Gomber is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 9th-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ryan McMahon has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 95.3-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies batters jointly place 10th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 8.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.25 Units / 42% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (-105/-125)
  Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)