Injury Report for Nationals vs Cubs – Saturday, September 21st, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs gear up to host the Washington Nationals at Wrigley Field on September 21, 2024, both teams are navigating contrasting seasons. The Cubs, with a 79-75 record, are having an average season but still hold a slight edge in the National League playoff race. Meanwhile, the Nationals, sitting at 68-86, have struggled throughout the season and are out of playoff contention.

Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks takes the mound, bringing his right-handed pitching against a Nationals lineup known for its low strikeout rate, ranking 5th in fewest strikeouts. Despite Hendricks’ challenging season, with a 6.25 ERA and a 4-11 record, his 4.50 xFIP suggests some bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average, while striking out 4.6 batters.

Opposing him is Washington’s MacKenzie Gore, a lefty with a 9-12 record and a respectable 4.17 ERA. His 3.62 FIP hints at some misfortune as well, suggesting he might outperform his season stats. Gore is projected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 12th-best ranking, with notable prowess in stolen bases at 7th, while the Nationals rank 23rd overall but lead in stolen bases. Mike Tauchman has been a standout for Chicago, hitting .500 with a 1.100 OPS over the last week, while Darren Baker has shone for Washington, boasting a .556 average and 1.333 OPS in his recent performances.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 61% win probability, higher than the betting market’s implied 56%. With the Cubs projected to score 5.20 runs against Washington’s 4.37, there’s value in backing Chicago as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  MacKenzie Gore’s fastball velocity has jumped 1 mph this year (95.4 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Joey Gallo is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Generating 14.1 outs per game per started this year on average, Kyle Hendricks falls in the 7th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Washington (#1-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+12.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+53.90 Units / 110% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 49 games (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)