How to Watch the White Sox vs Padres Game – Friday September 20, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Chicago White Sox at Petco Park on September 20, 2024, the stakes could not be higher for the Padres as they look to solidify their postseason positioning. With a strong 87-66 record, San Diego remains a contender in the National League, whereas the White Sox’s dismal 36-117 season will have them watching October from home.

San Diego’s Joe Musgrove, ranked as the 41st-best starting pitcher in MLB, takes the mound for the Padres. His 4.23 ERA suggests an above-average performance, though his 4.76 xERA hints at potential regression. Nevertheless, he’s projected to allow just 1.8 earned runs, a promising sign for Padres fans. On the other side, Garrett Crochet will start for Chicago, and despite his team’s struggles, he’s proven to be an elite talent with a #3 ranking among starting pitchers. His ERA of 3.78 doesn’t quite reflect his potential, as indicated by a much lower 2.48 xFIP, suggesting he may have been unlucky this season.

Offensively, the Padres have the upper hand, boasting the 5th-best lineup in MLB, with standout performances ranking 1st in batting average. Conversely, the White Sox rank last in both overall offense and home runs.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Padres are pegged as big favorites with a 68% win probability, aligning with betting odds that imply a similar chance. The Padres’ powerhouse lineup, combined with their 2nd-ranked bullpen and Musgrove’s low walk rate, should capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses, despite Chicago’s small chance to surprise with a strong outing from Crochet. Expect San Diego to leverage their offensive prowess and solid pitching to edge closer to their playoff aspirations.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Garrett Crochet has experienced a sizeable spike in his fastball velocity: from 96.5 mph over the whole season to 97.5 mph recently.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .259 mark is quite a bit lower than his .322 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+165/-220)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Joe Musgrove is expected to ring up an average of 17.2 outs in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-250)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 29 away games (+5.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dominic Fletcher – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)
  Dominic Fletcher has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 away games (+13.00 Units / 217% ROI)