Find Out How to Watch Tigers vs Orioles – Friday, September 20th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers face off on September 20, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams are in the thick of the playoff race with solid seasons under their belts. The Orioles boast an 85-68 record and are having a good season, while the Tigers, at 80-73, are enjoying an above-average campaign. This American League matchup marks the first game of the series, with both teams eager to make a statement.

On the mound for Baltimore will be Corbin Burnes, who has been stellar this year with a 14-8 record and an impressive 3.06 ERA. Ranked as the 27th-best starting pitcher in MLB, Burnes has been a crucial component for the Orioles. Despite his ERA, his 3.62 xFIP indicates some luck, suggesting potential regression. Burnes is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters on average—solid numbers that could give Baltimore an edge.

Brant Hurter takes the mound for Detroit, bringing an excellent 2.56 ERA across just seven starts. With a 5-1 record, Hurter has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers. However, projections suggest he might struggle, with an average of 4.7 innings pitched, 2.2 earned runs allowed, and a modest 3.8 strikeouts. As a high-groundball pitcher, Hurter’s style could neutralize Baltimore’s powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in home runs in MLB.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 6th overall, showcasing a potent lineup that could exploit Detroit’s pitching. In contrast, the Tigers’ bats rank 24th, posing a challenge against Burnes’ right arm. Additionally, while Baltimore’s bullpen ranks poorly at 26th, Detroit’s relief corps stands strong at 10th, potentially turning the tide late in the game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Orioles with a 58% win probability, projecting Baltimore to score around 4.20 runs compared to Detroit’s 3.74. While the Orioles hold the edge, Hurter’s groundball tendencies and Detroit’s bullpen could keep things interesting.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Brant Hurter – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Brant Hurter has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an -12.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Corbin Burnes has gone to his cutter 11.1% less often this season (44.3%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball hitters like Austin Slater generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brant Hurter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under Total Bases
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 36 games (+36.00 Units / 77% ROI)
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+13.50 Units / 36% ROI)