Player Props Analysis for Rockies vs Yankees – Sunday August 25th, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees look to bounce back from a disappointing 9-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies on August 24, they find themselves in an intriguing matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees currently hold a record of 76-54, solidifying their status as a strong contender. In contrast, the Rockies’ record stands at a dismal 48-82, highlighting their struggles throughout the season.

On the mound, the Yankees are projected to start Marcus Stroman, who has had a mixed year, ranking as the 156th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Despite this, he boasts a respectable ERA of 3.82 and aims to build on a strong outing in his last start, where he went 6 innings and allowed no earned runs. Stroman’s ability to keep the ball in the park could prove crucial against the Rockies, who rank as the 3rd highest strikeout team in the league.

Austin Gomber, projected to start for the Rockies, comes in as one of the league’s worst pitchers. He has an average ERA of 4.64 and struggles with allowing runs—projects to give up 3.4 earned runs today, which is concerning against a Yankees offense ranked 1st overall in MLB this season. The Yankees’ lineup is driven by Aaron Judge, who continues to be their key offensive weapon, recently accumulating impressive stats over the past week.

The leading MLB projection system suggests that the Yankees will score around 5.84 runs today, reflecting their high-powered offense against a Rockies team that has been struggling on both sides of the ball. With a current moneyline of -250, the Yankees are favored to win this Interleague game, and if they play to their capabilities, they should find success in this pivotal matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Gomber to throw 83 pitches today (8th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Typically, hitters like Brendan Rodgers who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Marcus Stroman.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Marcus Stroman’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (61.6% vs. 45.4% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 75 games (+17.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 away games (+7.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)