How to Watch Rays vs Guardians – Friday, October 16, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Cleveland Guardians

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nick Martinez is projected to throw 60 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Tanner Bibee will hold the advantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Tampa Bay’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jose Ramirez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 28% ROI)