Game Highlights for Rays vs Phillies – September 26, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Philadelphia Phillies

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Griffin Jax – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Griffin Jax’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (59.2% this year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Jonathan Aranda has averaged 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 4th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Schwarber is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+8.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+180/-240)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 29% ROI)