Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Pirates - Wednesday, September 23, 2026

+115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-135

Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Matthew Liberatore is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 13th-least of all pitchers today.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Leonardo Bernal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Despite posting a .373 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Leo Bernal has experienced some positive variance given the .075 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Rating 5th-lowest in the league since the start of last season, St. Louis Cardinals bats collectively have put up a 12.5° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (an advanced stat to study power skills).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Lake Bachar must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot since the start of last season: 60.7% of the time, ranking in the 77th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
Ivan Herrera has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.70 Units / 20% ROI)

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