Explore Nationals vs Tigers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 9/23/2026

Washington Nationals

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Detroit Tigers

Washington Nationals Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Richard Lovelady may not go more than a couple frames considering he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Brady House has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 4.7% rate last season to 10% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In today’s game, Dylan Crews is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Framber Valdez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Framber Valdez should be in good shape matching up with 7 hitters in the projected lineup of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Zach McKinstry’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to study power) has been 106 mph this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ben Malgeri, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, John Peck).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games at home (+7.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+8.50 Units / 94% ROI)