Team Stats and Insights for Orioles vs Blue Jays Match Preview - 9/13/2026

+130O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-150

Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
Trevor Rogers has recorded 16.9 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
Samuel Basallo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Dylan Cease – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Dylan Cease has gone to his slider 10.4% less often this year (34%) than he did last season (44.4%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.7-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.6-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Toronto Blue Jays (19.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate today.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+6.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 36% ROI)

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