Uncover the Game Forecast: Pirates vs Cubs Match Preview – 9/12/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this year (96.2 mph) below where it was last season (97.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.4-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball batters, Clay Holmes and his 55.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in today’s outing being matched up with 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive skill to be a .348, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .051 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .399 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-125)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.